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The Republican Presidential Primary Race, 3/1/08
Overview:
Join us as we analyze the Republican primary race for President. We will review the candidates and their campaign strategies as well as the key issues that divide or unite them. We'll look beyond the sound bite rhetoric as we examine the subtle (and not so subtle) differences that are likely to determine who becomes the Republican nominee.
Key Lecture Points:
• As the 2008 presidential elections draw nearer, Republicans are in the process of choosing their candidate. The primaries and caucuses, state-level contests for the party’s nomination for president, are currently underway and are, as usual, causing a flurry of media attention.
• In order to capture the party’s nomination, a candidate must win a majority of the 2,380 delegate votes at the Republican National Convention this fall. Of the 2,380 delegates scheduled to be at the convention, 1,917 are “pledged” delegates who must vote in accordance with the performance of candidates' performance in the state primary or caucus. The state party sets the rules for apportionment of the delegates. Unlike the Democratic Party, the Republican Party permits (but does not require) that states may have a "winner takes all" system for allotment of delegates. Colorado has such a system. Thus, Mitt Romney (who won 60% of the state vote) received all of Colorado's 43 pledged delegates. Other states, like Iowa, have proportional apportionment of delegates.
• In addition to the pledged delegates, the Republican Party also allots unpledged delegates to each state. Unlike the Democratic Party's unpledged delegates, the GOP unpledged delegates are elected based upon a candidate's performance in the primary or caucus. While unpledged, these delegates are highly likely to vote for a particular candidate.
• Roughly 5% of the GOP delegates are party officials who are free to vote for whomever they choose. As such these 123 delegates function much like the Democratic Party superdelegates.
• Like the Democratic Party, the Republican Party has sought to maintain control of the nomination process by forbidding the selection of delegates by any state prior to February 5. Five states (MI, FL, SC, WY, and NH) violated this rule by holding early primaries. They were penalized by having their delegations reduced by 50%. The Democrats have different rules, but stricter penalties, resulting in only two states penalized (MI and FL), but those states stripped of their entire delegations.
• The Republican Convention will be held from September 1-4 in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota.
Exploration Questions:
• How has John McCain’s apparent success been achieved?
• What controversies may arise within the GOP regarding McCain’s candidacy?
Reflective Question:
• What memories do you have of past Republican Conventions?
• Have you ever attended a convention? If so, what was your experience?
• Have you ever attended a caucus? In what ways was it different than voting?
More to Explore:
• General Coverage: www.ontheissues.org
• New York Times Coverage of Primaries: http://politics.nytimes.com
Books For Further Reading:
• Scala, Dante J. Stormy Weather: The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics. Palgrave Macmillan, 2003. 218 pages. This historical, political and strategic analysis of the New Hampshire primaries explains the importance of the contest, its implications for the presidential election and those strategies that work and those that don’t. Click here to order.
• Gangale, Thomas M. From the Primaries to the Polls: How to Repair America’s Broken Presidential Nomination Process. Praeger, 2007. 280 pages. This reading of the presidential nomination process argues that it is “unfair and exclusive”, giving unfair privilege to states that go first in the primary elections. He also argues that front-loading the primary calendar has the effect of the awarding the nomination to the candidate with the best financing. Click here to order.
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